Summary:
The recovery of the global economy continues, with strong output growth in developing countries and weaker economic performance in developed countries. Higher energy and food prices have put upward pressure on inflation rates, underpinning monetary policy tightening especially in many developing countries. Employment trends have been improving, but major challenges, such as rising long-term unemployment and high youth unemployment in a number of economies, remain. World trade of goods and services expanded stronger than expected last year, marking a strong rebound from the severe contraction in 2009 with developing countries, particularly Asian economies with large shares in the trade of manufactured goods, leading the recovery. At the same time, net private capital infl ows to emerging economies continued to recover from their pronounced decline during the global fi nancial crisis, a trend that is expected to continue, as higher output growth and rates of return will attract more capital fl ows to emerging economies. The baseline outlook for 2011 and 2012 is subject to a number of risks, including problems regarding the sustainability of public finances in developed economies, the remaining vulnerability of the private financial sector, continued high and volatile commodity prices and the possible collapse of the United States dollar. In the area of policy making, numerous challenges remain, such as how to time the unwinding of fi scal support, the redesign of fi scal policy to promote employment and sustainable development, greater synergy between monetary and fi scal policy, the provision of suffi cient funding to developing countries and more eff ective international policy coordination.
The present document updates World Economic Situation and Prospects 2011 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.11. II.C.2), released released in January 2011.
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