Friday, 1 August 2014

U-Report: Rauf Aregbesola In Clear Lead On All Critical Indicators

Governor Rauf Aregbesola

Report By Razaq Animasaun

73 Percent Of Osun Voters Choose Aregbesola
Omisore Behind By 54 Points
Confidence In Inec Drops By 10 Points

With less than two weeks to the Osun governorship elections, the latest survey conducted by the reputable firm of TNS-RMS (a member of Gallup International) has confirmed the domination of the Osun political landscape by the All Progressives Congress (APC) on all critical indicators.

“The APC continues to dominate the political landscape in Osun State judging by its performance on all key indicators evaluated: it scored highest and also increased in rating on first mention, sympathy, and voting
intention,” the research firm said in its final report.

According to the study, the incumbent governor, Rauf Aregbesola, is the candidate of choice by Osun voters with a 73% lead over other candidates. This is a clear indication that the choice of Osun voters in the next
governorship race is Governor Rauf Aregebsola.  Meanwhile, Senator Iyiola Omisore of the PDP comes a far distant second, polling 19% representing a 2% decline from the earlier survey.

“The incumbent (Governor Rauf Aregbesola) remains (the) main voting choice. Voting choice for Senator Omisore declined by 2% and seem not to pose a threat to the incumbent’s chances of re-election as he remains firmly ahead of the race,” TSN-RMS said in its report.

The two phased survey was conducted over a period that stretched from June 2014 into the third week of July 2014.

“Not only is APC currently the most preferred party in Osun State, it has largely retained this goodwill from way back in the past. It was the party that most people claimed to have voted for in the last election and it is
still the party with the highest chances of winning the election again. More importantly, the gap by which it outperforms opposition continues to widen and more convincing in the current survey,” the report added.

The APC also rates very high in the survey as its top-of-mind and awareness increased from 75% to 78% over the two polls, followed by a very far distance by the PDP with 18%, a drop of 3% from 21% in the first study. The Labour Party maintains third rank with a negligible 1%. Furthermore, electorate choice for APC is now 70% - boosted by 1% increment. 19% say they would vote for the PDP, another 3% drop. Electorate choice for Labour Party remains 1%.

The report goes further to say, “While Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is more known than his party, Senator Iyiola Omisore (PDP’s candidate) is less known than his party. Top-of-mind awareness of Ogbeni Rauf  Aregbesola increased to 85% (from 79%), affinity increased from 72% to 74% and chances of being
re-elected increased from 71% to 73%.”

Conversely, it is a tale of decline for the man in second place, Senator Omisore. For top-of-mind awareness, the PDP candidate toppled to 13% (from 19%), affinity fell to 19% (from 21%) and chances of being elected declined to 19% (from 21%).

While the affinity of Osun electorate towards the APC increased by 4%, PDP failed to maintain its connection to the people. The favourable perception of Osun voters towards the All Progressive’s Congress, APC stood at 83 per cent while on 17 per cent viewed APC as unfavourable.

According to the polls, 98% of the electorates in Osun State have said they would participate in the August 9th gubernatorial election. This indicates that the people are prepared for all eventualities in election.

The survey also revealed the strength of the candidates and their parties in the local government areas across the state; “Repeat of APC high chance to win in all the LGAs seem to play out again in the next election, APC is poised to repeat this feat except in Ife Central and Ife East; the PDP seemed well positioned to win these two LGAs. The Labour Party’s weakness is imminent across all the LGAs.

“The incumbent's chances of being reelected remain same across the LGAs except in Ife Central and Ife East. The incumbent’s chances of re-election remain high and leads his closest rival by a good margin of 54%-an increment of 4% over last survey.”

The voters’ confidence in Attahiru Jega-led Independent National Election Commission (INEC) took a 10% hit, dropping to 57% to 67%.

The Margin Of Error For The Survey Is Plus Or  Minus 5 Per Cent With A 95 Percent Level Of Confidence.

Eleven Take Aways From The Reseach/Survey On Osun Elections 1. APC continues to lead top of mind awareness, increased to 78%. Spontaneous aware of PDP dipped by 3%. The third contender remains almost unknown at 1%.

 2. Although the gap closed up significantly, APC still maintains a healthy lead over the PDP and other opposition power on overall awareness.

 3.Voter sympathy is expressed more firmly in favor of the APC, more than 2/3 voters express sympathy to  APC compare to 1/5 voters who show sympathy to PDP

 4.Overall,  All Progressive Congress (APC) enjoys and maintains a comfortable assessment  over other parties

5. Overall, the electorate speaks favorably about APC and have a positive perception towards the party. Adduced to be a grass root party, a party that has proven record of performance and party for the masses.

6.Spontaneous awareness  of Ogbeni Aregbesola seem to increase as party awareness increases, PDP top-of-mind awareness declined and still trail far behind APC

7. Awareness of the incumbent-Ogbeni Aregbesola increases marginally to 98%. His incumbency, among other factors is a key source of awareness. Senator Iyiola Omisore  has gained some awareness through ‘Word of Mouth’.

8. The incumbent governor is highly rated and he continues to lead other candidates in all the stated attributes. Senator Omisore seem to drop marginally in all the  stated attributes

9. The incumbent remains main voting choice for the voters. Voting chance for Senator Omisore declined by 2% and seems not to pose a threat to the incumbent’s chances of re-election as he remains firmly ahead of the race.

10. Influence of candidate’s personality has increased to be main driver of voting choice. This is followed by the appeal of individual candidate’s track record. Influence of party platform continues to diminish.

11. Confidence level in INEC’s ability to deliver, both as an umpire generally and in the Osun State elections have drastically reduced, and now tend towards average.

(Animasaun can be reached on 08169704223,

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